我院唐世平教授和他的合作者🦈，李輝副教授、熊易寒副教授最近連續發表兩篇英文關於石油（的地理區位）和族群戰爭爆發之間的關系的文章。其中的一篇發表在我院主辦的Chinese Political Science Review雜誌上👊🏻。另一篇發表在國際政治一流雜誌Security Studies（SSCI刊物）。兩篇文章都是當期的開篇文章🙆🏻。這兩篇文章是唐世平教授和他的團隊在族群政治領域的系列研究的階段性最新成果。
結合定量與定性分析，並且比較定量和定性分析的結果，唐世平教授他們的研究基本上提供了關於石油和族群戰爭的爆發的關系的近乎蓋棺定論的（definitive）回答。通過整合族群的地理信息和油田的地理信息🪺，他們的定量和定性相結合的研究表明，石油的地理區位才是真正讓石油和族群戰爭的爆發聯系起來的關鍵😫。具體地說，如果石油發現在少數族群的核心聚集地區，石油會顯著增加族群戰爭爆發的危險。而如果石油發現在多數族群的核心聚集地區或者是族群分布比較均勻🧔🏿♀️，則石油不會顯著增加族群戰爭爆發的危險🤹🏻♂️。相比既有的一些研究，他們的研究更加精細。他們的研究推翻𓀗，或者至少質疑👼🏽，了此前關於“resource curse（資源詛咒）”或者是“oil curse（石油詛咒）”的許多不夠精確的提法。
他們發表在Security Studies的這篇文章同時還是一篇方法論的文章。通過比較定量和定性分析的結果，唐世平教授他們的研究不僅確立了石油的地理區位如何增加族群戰爭爆發的危險的核心機製👰🏼♀️，而且進一步從機製水平批評了此前關於石油和族群戰爭爆發之間的聯系的諸多假說或者定量結果🦹🏽♂️。他們的這篇文章還對如何選擇案例來做比較案例分析做出了有益的討論𓀗。
顯然⛴，唐世平教授和他的團隊的研究對於管理族群政治以防止族群戰爭的爆發有著非常顯著的政策意義☝️。
Li and Tang. 2017. “Location, Location, Location: The Ethno-Geography of Oil and the Onset of Ethnic War,”Chinese Political Science Review
ABSTRACT
Challenging and improving upon existing studies, we develop a more integrated and fine-grained theory regarding oil and the onset of ethnic war and present systematic quantitative evidences for our theory. We contend that it is the ethno-geographical location of oil rather than oil income, rent, or relative distribution/concentration that really connects oil with the onset of ethnic war. When the core territory of a minority group has a significant amount of oil, the minority group is more likely to rebel against a central state dominated by another group and oil is strongly associated with the onset of ethnic war. In contrast, when oil is located with the core territory of a dominant majority group or that a country has a fairly even distribution of ethnic groups and no group can lay an exclusive claim to oil, oil is not associated with a higher risk of ethnic war. We construct two new indicators regarding the ethno-geographical location of oil from two different sources and test our hypotheses with the two new indicators. Statistical results strongly support our hypotheses. Together with evidences from case studies with process-tracing that demonstrate the mechanisms singled out by our theory really did operate in driving ethnic wars in an accompanying paper, we provide a more complete and close-to-definitive answer to the question whether and how oil is associated with the onset of ethnic war. Our exercise also points to a broader theory regarding the ethno-geography of commodity-type mineral resource with the onset of ethnic war.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41111-017-0062-2
Tang et al 2017. “Does Oil Cause Ethnic War? Comparing Evidence from Process-tracing with Quantitative Results,”Security Studies
ABSTRACT
This article contributes both empirically and methodologically. Empirically, we seek to advance our understanding of an important puzzle: does oil cause ethnic war? Methodologically, we seek to identify more precisely the different weaknesses and strengths of the quantitative approach and case studies with process-tracing by explicitly comparing results from these two approaches on the same empirical question. We thus subject the statistical association between the ethnogeographical location of oil and the onset of ethnic war to test with process-tracing. Examining several pathway cases, we find that oil has rarely been a deep cause of ethnic war. Instead, the ethnogeographical location of oil either reignites dormant conflict that has deeper roots in ethnic resentment and hatred or intensifies ongoing conflict, mostly by facilitating the operation of two interconnected mechanisms. Our study echoes the notion that quantitative exercises alone often cannot establish specific causal mechanisms or how contextual factors impact the operation of these mechanisms, and it is precisely on these two key fronts that qualitative exercises possess critical advantages. Hence, quantitative methods and qualitative methods are complementary rather than competitive. Our study also yields important policy implications for preventing and managing ethnic conflict in countries with rich mineral resource.
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306392
